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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache ebook
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 9780470725221
Page: 496
Format: pdf

[Don Quixote was already the sign of the end of the heroism, of the ethical behavior. Sep 8, 2010 - The mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb came up with the Black swan theory to address when rare and improbable events have a huge impact on people's lives and the world in general. In the end, the authors have clearly demonstrated that they do not care about biology, medicine or rational risk analysis. May 4, 2014 - One of the authors is statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has previously written books such as The Black Swan on the impact of low-probability events. The other two authors are physicist Yaneer Bar-Yam, and politician-philosopher Rupert Read. Feb 4, 2011 - A quick update to highlight the paper Elie Ayache just kindly pointed to in comments to a recent plug: “The End of Probability”. Aug 16, 2011 - The tornado that nearly leveled the city of Joplin, Missouri in May was a black swan; so was the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami that rocked Japan in March; and the “hundred-year floods” that now take place every couple of years in the American Midwest. It could change everything The reign of the Tsars would end in communist slavery. They have negligible knowledge of molecular biology, plant breeding and genetic engineering. Jul 13, 2011 - He takes aim at Taleb's Black Swan model (and in general our view of probability and market pricing) and provides a new model of how to view contingent claims and their relationship with the market's pricing mechanism. The "Black Swans" just showing how the Earth's capacity of living people is coming near its end. A black swan is a low-probability, high-impact event that tears at the very fabric of civilization. Nov 5, 2013 - Magnetic migration or the earth's changing magnetic field is also something I would refer to as a black swan event. Jan 21, 2013 - But it's been a challenge to summarize what I learnt: Nicholas Nassim Taleb gives in this follow-up to the Black Swan a very interesting analysis of how the world can be less exposed to Black Swans, not by becoming more robust only, One needs a parameter, called standard deviation, but uncertainty about standard deviation has the effect of making the small probabilities rise. Sep 1, 2011 - The majority of bloggers and commenters sees 2011 somewhere between 2008 and 2007 at the end of the melting season and take it as a matter of probability.